The 12th Game Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are wide open. Grand Theft Auto 6, which was previously expected to dominate the Awards this year, has been delayed into 2026. That will make for a much less predictable Game of the Year competition at the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming, as it were.
The Game Awards’ voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media (Polygon included), with a 10% contribution from fan voting. There are a number of strong indicators for what will perform well in the Game of the Year category. A high Metacritic rating (preferably over 90) is a must; role-playing games and action-adventures are strongly favored, as are games with strong narrative elements; indie and multiplayer games struggle harder for recognition than AAA single-player adventures. We used these metrics to correctly predict last year’s winner, Astro Bot. (We also got four of the six nominees right, and correctly called 14 other categories.)
Below, you’ll find our predictions for the most likely nominees, of which there are six each year, for Game of the Year 2025. Unlike the film industry, where most titles are known quantities well in advance, you never really know what kind of impact a video game will have, or how good it will be, until it’s out. With that in mind, this list only includes games that are already out. We’ll update these rankings throughout the year as new games are released. We’ll also list some likely upcoming contenders and some of the 2025 GOTY race’s dark horses, too.
Update (Oct. 1): As expected, Hades 2 roars into contention for Game of the Year 2025 after its 1.0 release garners the strongest reviews for any new game this year — even stronger than Clair Obscur, although that game still looks like an all-round stronger package, given The Game Awards jury’s leanings. A historic two indie game nominations now seem guaranteed, alongside Silksong. Silent Hill f and Ghost of Yōtei have both been well received and qualify as dark horses for now, joining a scrum of games competing for the sixth nomination. Ghost may yet make it, depending on the impact it makes when it’s in players’ hands.
GOTY front-runners
1. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33
Why it could win: A critically acclaimed role-playing game, strong on storytelling and performance, thematically resonant but also fun, with slick production values and shiny graphics — this is the stuff Game of the Year winners are made of. It’s an astonishing achievement from the relatively small debut team at Sandfall Interactive, which only adds to its cachet. The somewhat similar Metaphor: ReFantazio was very strong in 2024. Expedition 33 is looking hard to beat.
Weaknesses: While it’s a minor hit, enough people need to play Expedition 33 — especially among the critical community — to keep it in the conversation for more than six months. Game Pass will help, but is it really big enough to win?
Momentum (holding steady): Clair Obscur is a complete package, people are still playing and talking about it, and prediction markets are overwhelmingly betting on its success. It’s very secure in the top spot.
Read Isaiah Colbert’s full review of Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.
2. Hades 2
Why it could win: By a narrow margin, Hades 2 is the best-reviewed new game of the year, with ratings of 94 on Metacritic and 93 on OpenCritic after it came out of early access in September. The original Hades won many individual publications’ game of the year awards in 2020, and was only thwarted at The Game Awards by The Last of Us Part 2 — a perceived injustice some on the jury may be keen to correct.
Weaknesses: After over a year in Early Access, Hades 2 is a known quantity, and that’s before you consider that it’s a sequel; its greatness may be taken for granted by the jury. It’s also not quite as big a popular hit as its stellar reputation with critics and enthusiasts might suggest. Finally, as an action-roguelike, it’s quite far outside the jury’s favored genres.
Momentum (new entry): Hades 2‘s critical reception could hardly be better, but some fans aren’t so delighted with the 1.0 release, and its lead over Silksong may be temporary; the latter game has more players and, potentially, more longevity.
Read Ari Notis’ full review of Hades 2.
3. Hollow Knight: Silksong
Why it could win: Team Cherry’s long, long, long-awaited follow-up to its 2017 indie hit could well clean up at The Game Awards, in part because the original didn’t make much of an impression there and the jury will be keen to retrospectively reward it. Critics (mostly) adore it, it seems to have sold incredibly well, and its release was a real event that dominated the conversation for weeks (and at time of writing, hasn’t stopped).
Weaknesses: Silksong is very hard, which has divided some critics but is even more likely to divide the jury, which doesn’t just stop at those members of the media who had to push through and review it. Many players bounce off the game or feel infuriated by it, and the surrounding discourse has been a bit fractious.
Momentum (📉 from No. 2): No other 2025 games have made as big a splash as Silksong, and it’s unlikely that any others will. The sensation of its release and the game’s large, mysterious, and difficult nature are keeping it in the conversation.
Read Patricia Hernandez’s full review of Hollow Knight: Silksong.
4. Death Stranding 2: On the Beach
Why it could win: Hideo Kojima’s sequel to his divisive, prophetic 2019 sci-fi epic about hiking across the barren wasteland between bunkers of civilization is both grander and more palatable than the original. A technically astounding, absorbing, ambitious dad game, with rave reviews, published by Sony… it’s got all the features of a major GOTY contender, and it comes from the most famous video game auteur still working.
Weaknesses: Next to Clair Obscur’s underdog story, Death Stranding 2 feels like the establishment choice, despite its many oddities. And the closeness between Kojima and Keighley (who had a cameo in the first game) might make some jury members feel queasy about voting for it.
Momentum (holding steady): There’s no real change in Death Stranding 2‘s standing in the race, but Kojima Productions’ showy anniversary celebrations at Tokyo Game Show, and trailer for follow-up OD, have only served to burnish the auteur’s reputation.
Read Oli Welsh’s impressions of Death Stranding 2.
5. Donkey Kong Bananza
Why it could win: With a rating of 90 or more on both Metacritic and OpenCritic, Bananza has the necessary level of critical support to compete. That’s not surprising in a Nintendo platformer, which counts against it. But, with its destruction gameplay, resuscitation of Donkey Kong as a lead character, and status as the standard-bearer for a new console, it has more novelty value than your average Mario game, and makes for a more interesting story.
Weaknesses: Family-oriented platformers tend to underperform in Game of the Year, due to perceived immaturity and under-developed storylines. Astro Bot bucked that trend last year, but two wins in a row seems unlikely. Plus, Nintendo’s greatness is assumed and taken for granted.
Momentum (📉 from No. 3): The poorly received DK Island + Emerald Rush DLC has dented Bananza‘s reputation a little, and while its nomination seems assured, the gap between it and the top spot just keeps widening.
Read Josh Broadwell’s full review of Donkey Kong Bananza.
6. Split Fiction
Why it could win: Critical consensus is still the most reliable indicator of success at The Game Awards, and with a rating over 90 on both Metacritic and OpenCritic, Hazelight’s co-op adventure is a clear front-runner in this regard. It’s got a legacy advantage, too: Hazelight’s previous game, It Takes Two, won GOTY in 2021, and since then has amassed a massive popular following. As a story-led action-adventure, Split Fiction also belongs to a genre that the Game Awards jury has been known to favor in the past.
Weaknesses: Perhaps It Takes Two’s win will count against it if jury members are looking for something different to reward. Also, while It Takes Two’s intensely personal story about divorce was unquestionably a strength, Split Fiction has been praised more for its design than its abstract and overworked tale of writers adrift in virtual reality.
Momentum (📉 from No. 5): Split Fiction has been in the race a long time now and conversation has died away, but don’t undervalue its popularity with normies and the uniqueness of its co-op framework.
Read Isaiah Colbert’s full review of Split Fiction.
Dark horses
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2: The ultra-realistic medieval role-playing game has a devoted fanbase, especially in Europe (which is very well represented on The Game Awards jury). It’s not to be underestimated, especially in light of Black Myth: Wukong securing a nomination in similar circumstances last year.
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle: It’s incredible that MachineGames’ Indy game has stayed in contention at all — it was released a couple of days before The Game Awards 2024 took place — but it remains a sentimental fave with many critics, in part because of the improbability of the game turning out so well. New DLC The Order of Giants might help the jury remember it, though it didn’t make a big splash.
Monster Hunter Wilds: Capcom’s latest in the monster-hunting RPG series launched to acclaim and huge sales early in the year, making it an early favorite. But time (and its community) haven’t been very kind, and many people would now rate it behind 2018’s World.
Blue Prince: This inscrutable indie puzzle game is a strong favorite with critics and its small fanbase, and was quite viral in games media circles, but maybe lacks enough localization to make enough of an impact with The Game Awards’ jury.
Ghost of Yōtei: Sucker Punch’s AAA samurai sequel has had a warm critical reception, if not quite warm enough to launch it into the stratosphere — and it’s competing against stablemate Death Stranding 2. Much depends on how players receive it. But Sony always scores big at The Game Awards.
Silent Hill f: Konami’s full-blooded return for the horror franchise has generally been well received by critics and players, and blockbuster horror games do often sneak into the GOTY nominations.
Upcoming titles
The Outer Worlds 2: After Avowed (perhaps undeservedly) slipped out of contention and the public consciousness, Obsidian Entertainment takes its second pop at a GOTY nomination with its humorous, Fallout-inspired space RPG sequel.
Keeper: We don’t know that much about Double Fine’s next game, due in October; it’s about a sentient lighthouse with a bird friend and has no dialogue. But based purely on artwork and vibes (plus Psychonauts 2’s nomination) it seems like a possible contender.
